Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail 2012

JANUARY 4, 2012

FORWARD

     It was difficult to allow myself to steal the good Doctor's favorite title, but nothing more aptly describes the situation we have now found ourselves in.  As he saw the writing on the wall and took his exit from a world increasingly shadowed by a darkness more stifling and deadly than even the one which enshrouded the dark days of 1972, I feel that he would not really mind my borrowing of it, provided I put it to good use.  If this is possible, I promise I will.

     I will also try and stick to the Doctor's general rules.  Get the story, highlight the important tidbits overlooked by others, and keep the campaign rather than any one candidate the focus.  I will, of course, take the Doctor's lead and give a little preference to the grass roots underdog, providing he remains in the right and remains in the campaign.

     Unlike the Doctor, my life is way too boring for conventional Gonzo journalism.  Where the Doctor was flying around the nation with press access and insider correspondence, I am working a less than glamorous job and dealing with three delinquent children ages 2, 4, and 6.  However, with the modern applications of the Internet and social media, information and images are flying around at a rate that would have frightened even the most hardened political junkie back in 1972.  In a sense, we have all gone a little Gonzo, although none of us have the touch of the Master.

     As I'm sure we are all acquainted with the main cast of characters, let's get right to the heart  of this thing!

HAWKEYES RUN LEFT...... PAUL ROCKS THE VOTE..... PERRY WATERS HIS HORSE..... BACHMANN SURRENDERS...... GINGRICH SHARPENS HIS TALONS...... OFF TO NEW HAMPSHIRE!

     Having spent approximately thirty three years of my life within a twenty minute drive of Council Bluffs, Iowa, I have a bit of an understanding of  the workings of the Iowa political process.  When the pundits vaguely speak of "organization" and "ground game", they are referring to a very intricate and most American process of backroom deals with preachers, union leaders, small town politicians, and practically any other Iowans of influence within their respective communities.  Apparently, the guy with the goofy grin wandering the countryside for the past five years with nothing but a Hawkeyes jacket and a feel for the desperation of back country Iowa Protestants was the undisputed master of this process.

     With his vows to criminalize abortion and prohibit Constitutionalists from imposing "man on dog" sex on the unsuspecting masses, Rick Santorum was able to ease the minds of the entire Bible Belt with a lot of leg work, a very low profile, and a well timed propaganda barrage by the national media.  There is more than one precedent for this, most recently the guitar strumming FOX fun host Mike Huckabee, but the rise from around 5% to first place status in a matter of three weeks was, along with the 8 vote separation from Mitt Romney, ultimately the biggest story of the 6 month battle for Iowa.

     While Rick Santorum took the Bible Belt with old fashioned foot work and a little help from above, Mitt Romney muscled his votes with all the precision of a sledgehammer.  His money, influence, and high media profile ensured him a quarter of the votes without having to expend much effort.  When it came time for the other candidates to spend their big attack money, they seemed to focus it on Mitt and Newt Gingrich simultaneously.  As Gingrich took a run through the spotlight at the same time, the attacks seemed to bleed him, while neither hurting nor helping Romney.  In the end, the flood ravaged counties on the dark Eastern banks of the Missouri River were, with no other alternative, more receptive to the candidate who seemed most likely to maintain big government standards.  The destructive floods of 2011 were definitely a tragedy for the ages, and the wounds to Western Iowa's economy left deep scars which will be slow to heal.  The people of these communities are left in the bad position of being completely dependent upon the "mercy" of the Federal Government.  I suppose in that light, Mitt Romney doesn't look like such a bad option.

     Iowa has always leaned more to the Left than other Midwestern counterparts, while maintaining a rigid Evangelical base in the less populated agricultural regions.  Democrats are more likely to win the state in the General Election, but state politics are often likely to produce "moderate" Republicans.  This is the type of state where a man like Romney should clean up in a normal year, and at least be hailed as a "steady moderate" in desperate times such as these.  This is also a state where a Christian Federalist like Santorum can pull solid support in a normal year.  In the era of the Tea Party, that vote should have gone a different direction than Santorum however, particularly when a home grown Tea Party Princess and defender of the cornfields from the Muslim caliphates like Michelle Bachmann was in the race.  This tells us one of three things:  A.  The Tea Party is dead  B.  The Tea Party is torn between fear of  Obama and fear of abortion or C.  The Tea Party never really existed in Iowa.  The next two months should provide a more accurate assessment of the state of the Tea Party and it's impact, agenda, and relevance.

     

     As Ron Paul, the plucky little Texan with the stuttering problem and ubiquitous minions of determined campaign volunteers entered a school auditorium on election day, he encountered a reception generally reserved for someone like Justin Bieber or Hillary Clinton.  Amidst thundering applause, he delivered a message of small government, personal responsibility, adherence to the law, and individual freedom to a group of young voters who would have booed and hissed at G.W. Bush or Rick Santorum, slept through Gingrich or Romney, and, had they been old enough to vote three years ago, chanted and danced to Obama or Hillary.  One third of Ron Paul's election night vote was from Democrats or Independents, many of them youngsters with no responsibility for our crumbling state of affairs but all the culpability for it in the long run.

     Needless to say, the policies of the Bush years and then the outlandish idea of running John McCain for President in 08 led to a mass migration from the Republican Party.  The Tea Party seemed to galvanize those remaining and even bring a few fringers back around for a time, but fear and loathing of many things - Iran, Obama, men marrying dogs - seems to have splintered and marginalized the Tea Party back into a more conventional Republican fold.  The Ron Paul "Reloveution", as it is fondly called by the kids, seems to be EXACTLY what the party needs right now.  A Massachusetts Democrat with a Republican haircut, a knight errant of the Spanish Inquisition who slept with his dead fetus, and a dinosaur from the 90's who was run out of town by his own party due to ethics issues are hardly the answer to reviving Conservatism in mainstream America.  Ron Paul seems to have found the magic so effectively used by the Clintons over the years, yet his own party has turned on him, seemingly for proposing legality amongst those in authority.

     Paul did manage to sneak away with close to a winners share of the votes anyway.  Interestingly, he defeated Romney in many of the urban areas along the Mississippi River, where recent natural disaster was not on voters minds.  He was the heavy favorite of Iowa voters who labled themselves as "true Conservatives" and grabbed a few counties in the middle of the Bible Belt.  He also managed to get his speech aired at the perfect time of the evening when everyone was still watching. 

     In the end, Paul may be bitter about the last minute Santorum surge, but he definitely won a moral victory, established himself as a contender for at least a while longer, and guaranteed himself something at the end of the road.  Due to the very unique nature of Paul's supporters, he holds the power to at least hand the election to Obama, no matter where he finishes.  After all the shots taken at him, I suspect his price for endorsement of another Republican will be very high.  If it was me, I would demand to choose the Vice President, install Ron Paul as the Federal Reserve Chairman, and make someone like Jesse Ventura the Secretary of Defense.  Love it or leave it, Mitt.  What Paul will do remains to be seen, but he is definitely heading to New Hampshire with an enthusiasm I personally have never seen him display.

     The other Texan in the race, Rick Perry, did not fare so well at all.  With only ten percent of the vote, his massive amounts of money and campaign time essentially did nothing but assist in the takedown of Newt Gingrich, and probably the rise of Santorum.  When all was said and done, Perry had dumped upwards of $300 PER VOTE in Iowa, and received nothing in return.  As he gave his speech, he literally looked like someone had just run over his dog.  A sharp dresser and charming stump speaker, with his money and experience he should have captured a bit more of the Santorum vote, even DESPITE his poor and well publicized debate performance.  Again, the so called Tea Party either disbanded or never really existed in Iowa to begin with.  Perry announced he was going home at the end of the night, but the next morning jumped back in, choosing to bypass New Hampshire and head for the more sympathetic Colony of South Carolina where he hopes to find the missing Tea Party and maybe get a few of them to vote for him.  Apparently someone in Texas threw more money on the table and sent him to try his hand in the Deep South.  This seems futile to many observers, and leaves me wondering who, why, and for what purpose?  Time will tell.  I can't say I'm completely unhappy.  His Clark Griswold-like behavior and seemingly endless supply of money spent attacking Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich adds a flavor that no Republican campaign should be without.

     Tea Party Princess Michelle Bachmann, on the other hand, received closer to Five Percent of the vote.  An early favorite, a self proclaimed founder of the Tea Party, a staunch defender of heterosexual marriage, an Iowa native, and a representative of the neighboring state of Minnesota, she should have had a very strong "ground game", a good base of support in the Santorum zone, and somewhat of a home field advantage.  She never received much bad press from mainstream Republicans, and was the winner of the Ames straw poll at the start of the campaign season.  Whether it was her constant miscues, her oversimplification of issues, her false demeanor, or her incessant screaming repetitive words and phrases that turned her off to Iowa voters, she finished dead last among those actively campaigning in the state.  While sounding optimistic Tuesday evening, she effectively dropped out of the race the next morning.  Apparently in her case the pocketbooks all closed.  Unfortunately for us, we won't have Michelle Bachmann to kick around anymore. 

     Newt Gingrich, the crafty veteran playing for the Establishment in this one, did not come out as bad as he could have.  After riding out the wave of public interest which Santorum then hopped on at just the right time, he found himself paddling into the primaries in the second tier of expected vote getters.  Taking much deserved fire from his fellow Republicans while having no "ground game" to speak of, Newt was merely riding on the publicity and recognition he still garners from his time in the spotlight during the 1990's.  Considering that time ended in somewhat of a disgrace, he was probably playing with a double edged sword.  
     Newt's final speech in Iowa revealed an angry, embarrassed Newt that we have not seen in a long  time.  For a consumate show politician who can conjur tears from thin air, the image of a non composed, angry, bitter, revengeful, uncivil Newt Gingrich was a sight that left more than one observer scratching their heads.  Whether calculated bluster to assist his campaign or sway backroom deals or genuine thirst for blood and vengeance, Newt promised America a spectacular battle of attrition against Mitt Romney in the coming days and weeks.   This will probably begin at the infamous New Hampshire debate on Saturday night.  As gripping as this may be, most Americans will be busily drinking, dining, shopping, or watching the New Orleans Saints.  Whatever happens will be revealed to them in packaged sound bites on Monday, complete with expert analysis.

     After a long, arduous Iowa campaign (which was interrupted now and then with spastic periods of controversy and the rise and fall of almost every player in the game) closed out with a photo finish and some possible late night shenanigans, we are left with more questions than answers.  Can Santorum do well in Baptist country?  Will Gingrich sink Romney?  Did the old Revolutionary from Texas hit his high water mark, or start the early stages of a groundswell?  How many states until we don't have Dick Perry to kick around anymore?  Does anyone remember John Huntsman?  One thing we know for certain.  As we enter this fateful year which more than a few predict will end with either chaos and destruction or enlightenment and consciousness expansion, we are truly witnessing the most colorful Republican primary in at least a generation.  As we travel our predestined path towards that fateful Winter Solstice, will we be looking at four more desperate years of rule by Obama,  or will one of these characters pull the sword from the proverbial stone and claim the White House desk for his own feet?

To Be Continued..........