Hawkeye Wrap Up........Huntsman Sets his Trap.........Paul Fires First........Saturday Night Live........Mitt's Bane
As the Iowa Caucus results were just being delivered with the Wednesday morning newspaper, the entire media circus had already packed up and left, mostly for New Hampshire, leaving the suddenly quiet and slightly bewildered state of Iowa behind. They seem to have left several key elements of the story behind as well. We know that Mitt Romney officially won, although it is alleged that he didn't. As Rick Santorum refuses to contest the official vote tally, Romney's eight vote escape will officially enter the books for posterity. With rumours swirling through the now empty January cornfields of lights going out during the counts, late arriving armies of unregistered voters, and a little hanky panky at the last minute to give Romney the official victory, it is hardly surprising that Santorum would prefer to leave well enough alone and get to the warm sunny cotton fields where his new found popularity and familiar message might appeal to his Baptist cousins.
So, what's the score? Who really won? What does it all mean? The answers to these questions may be a bit surprising. They will also be a little disconcerting to some, and probably met with smug relief by more than a few others. There are apparently somewhere around 2,250,423 eligible voters in the state of Iowa. This Republican Presidential cycle has undoubtedly been the most hyped, most analyzed, and most expensive pre-caucus campaign by either party in the history of U.S. Party politics. Throngs of sleazy journalists and their even more loathsome subject matter - politicians - have been canvassing the state of Iowa since about the time the Missouri River topped it's banks last Spring. If you lived in Iowa you had to chase Ron Paul supporters off your property with a shotgun before disposing of the wire signs left behind in your grass. If you tried to catch an Iowa State football game at the local tavern, you ran the risk of Rick Santorum tugging at your shoulder and extolling the virtues of a Federal Masturbation Ban during a crucial fourth quarter drive. You couldn't turn on a radio or television without hearing Rick Perry's "Washington Outsider" speech, or drive down the street without running over a CNN power cable. Again, this was supposed to be a BIG DEAL - "the eyes of America and the World are on the humble state of Iowa this evening...." and so on and so forth.
Of the 2,250,423 eligible voters in the state of Iowa, 147,255, or 6.54% actually showed up to vote, and 25,000 or 17% of them voted for Barack Obama! (Approximately 1.5% of them or around 375 voted "other Democrat"). This low turnout produced essentially a 3-way Republican split, and some uncertainty over who will get Iowa's delegates when it's all said and done. While Romney has the brutally efficient combination of establishment money, the best campaign managers establishment money can buy (not already on Clinton retainer), and the full technical support of the Republican Party, his campaign's oversight and haughtiness may have just cost him a bit when the Iowa votes are finalized much later his year. By that time it may not matter.
Santorum may have also been caught napping at the end of the day in Iowa. He seems to be the type not to overlook technical details, but the sudden surge in his support probably caught him as unawares as the rest of us. Ron Paul, on the other hand, possesses some very savvy campaign strategists, hordes of volunteers who would lay down their lives for him, and the experience you would expect from a 76 year old Texas politician. His campaign appears to have ensured that a well instructed delegate was left at every caucus site be named as a delegate to the County Conventions in March, which will elect delegates for the Congressional District Conventions in April which will prep candidates for the Iowa Republican Convention in June. Quite a long procedure considering Iowa's 28 (3 of those are unpledged Party officials) delegates don't really go very far, particularly when split up among six candidates.
The most realistic prediction is this: by the time of the Congressional District Convention, Santorum, Gingrich, and Perry are gone. As it stands now, they hold 6, 4, and 3 respectively. Romney and Paul probably hold six of each as well, and these other 13 could go either way. Most likely they will side with the winner, but they could be Ron Paul supporters in disguise, and will cast for him either way. What this says is that wins in Iowa (and New Hampshire) are really only meaningful as they pertain to recognition and fundraising. The unpredictable winner-take-all-state of South Carolina, and the crown jewel of January -Florida (full of retirees who would feel very comfortable with a suspected Socialist like Mitt Romney in charge)- will play a much more concrete role in not only cementing a front runner but laying a foundation for victory.
One last, and definitely not least most important thing we learned from Iowa, is that the omnipresent Obama machine is hovering nearby, poised to strike and systematically destroy whoever the Republicans offer up as a sacrificial nominee. With rumours of Hillary Clinton replacing Biden as Obama's running mate, I'm not sure George Washington himself could decisively beat Obama today. Attack ads are a hell of a thing, to be sure. A billion dollars worth of attack ads, in this society......Romney has temper tantrums over simple allegations leveled by the amiable Rick Perry. Imagine how he will crack when Hillary Clinton has her way with him.
Obama, in the more Soviet style Iowa Democrat Caucus (Obama _ Other _), received nearly as many votes as any one of the three top vote getters in the Republican Caucus. There was no real reason for Obama voters to even turn out, aside from maybe a bit of Hawkeye pride at being part of this grand tradition. This shows that of the growing percentage of Americans disgusted with Obama or politicians in general, many reserve even more distaste for the Republican Party in particular. While probably still the lingering side effects of being Bushwhacked, these feelings show that mainstream Americans do not trust the Republican Party to step in and fix the ever growing list of problems facing our once proud nation today. The conditions are truly ripe for even a terribly unpopular incumbent to maintain his stranglehold on the executive office for four more years.
Jon Huntsman, the former Utah governor who more than slightly resembles a Simpsons caricature, as everyone knows made the decision to snub the Iowa Caucuses and focus exclusively on the New Hampshire primary. Jon, better known as Jon Huntsman Jr., is, naturally, the son of Jon Huntsman Sr. Jon Huntsman Sr. was born in Blackfoot, Idaho, on the summer solstice of 1937. Go figure. After graduating several college programs with high honors, he spent two years in the military from 1959-1961. Later in the sixties, he turned up in the Los Angeles business community, with an egg production company. He later teamed this company up with a division of Dow Corning (a company extremely intertwined in Eisenhower's "military industrial complex" and which curiously built and runs the town of Lake Jackson, Texas - famous these days as Ron Paul's home base and the source of the pesky "newsletters) and became the President. After inventing the plastic hinged container for the Big Mac, he eventually founded Huntsman Chemical and was on his way towards becoming one of the wealthiest men in the world. While being heavily involved in the Mormon Church, the Republican Establishment, the "military industrial complex", and a whole host of other prestigious entanglements, one of his more recent associations stands out as very interesting in the context of today's events. In 2007, he founded Huntsman Gay Global Capital, teaming up with one of Mitt Romney's former raiding partners. (in 2001, 2 years after Romney's departure, Bain invested $600,000,000 in Huntsman, Inc.). What is the point of all this? Absolutely nothing. This guy's son is running for President and he has been quietly Santoruming his way around New Hampshire for the past several months while everyone else was in Iowa.
Huntsman may not have much of a chance. The little publicized, unexciting, former ambassador to China may surprise everyone with a strong showing on Tuesday. Another possibility is that months of carefully built support may have been immediately steamrolled by the stampede of politicians, pundits, and observers fresh in from Iowa. One thing is for certain, while he probably has the backing and connections to go as far as he wants, he doesn't have the public's attention or the "ground game" to run with the big dogs. Not in this cycle, anyways. Maybe not in any cycle. If he somehow pulls off a miracle and wins New Hampshire, it will bring a collective sigh of relief for all the other candidates not named Romney. The race will still be wide open, and Romney will begin to look like an outcast from his own party. This is probably nothing more than idle chatter. If Huntsman comes in a weak third in New Hampshire, his days will be very numbered from here on out. Maybe something like one.
As the world woke up trying to make sense of the Iowa proceedings on Wednesday morning, they found Ron Paul right in their face and loaded for bear. Taking the odd strategy of attacking Gingrich and Santorum while letting them throw their combined weight at Romney, he seems to be trying to cement himself as Romney's alternative before taking on Romney himself. Possibly a bit surprised to be in contention, his campaign goals may have not yet broadened beyond delegates and platforms. He has exposed himself, however, as a masterful politician, a revelation a bit disturbing when one contemplates the dastardly deeds of other master politicians. The night of the Caucuses, he made a very clear, powerful, and well received speech at the perfect time of the night. His speech was first, about halfway through the ten o'clock news, and carried in full on every major news network. He then fired a shot at Newt Gingrich the next morning which probably resonated very well in South Carolina before sitting down to a rather long and favorable CNN interview to be played later in the afternoon.
During my formative introduction to life as a political junkie in the early eighties, I was introduced to a world where abortion was the key litmus test (causing politicians to change platforms and even parties on a regular basis to stay in tune with the narrow but constantly shifting opinion gap on this issue), Vietnam draft dodging was one of the worst accusations that could be leveled at an opponent, the name of Ronald Reagan was a highly charged curse or blessing, and shadowy agents of Satan lurked in every dark alleyway, waiting to either ritually murder children or purchase pornography at the corner Seven Eleven. After Santorum's victory in Iowa, waking up on Wednesday to Paul's attack on Gingrich, and then seeing Gingrich and Perry throw out the hallowed name of Reagan at every opportunity, I felt as if I had traveled a quarter century back to a time when my only real concern was the prospect of being turned to glass at the whim of a Soviet bureaucrat. The infinitely more dangerous menace of an Iranian dromedary brigade armed with a hydrogen bomb and possibly a manual detonator was still many years in the future.
What Paul did was simple, and quite brilliant. With the youth and independent energy of Americans who might give Conservative change a chance already in his back pocket, he decided to reach out to older Republican voters with an appeal to one of their most revered ideals. He singled out Newt Gingrich as the candidate to attack on the war issue. He established that Newt (and others) are very eager to start wars which may be unnecessary. He then promoted his insane belief that war should be entered into legally and only as a last resort. Following this, he very quickly contrasted the fact that Newt received a deferment while he, Ron Paul, served as a flight surgeon. In masterful style, he quickly built up some emotion and derisively referred to Newt as a "Chicken Hawk". This brilliantly simple retro sound bite was paired with a successful CNN interview later Wednesday afternoon, after which Paul retired to prepare for his all out assault on New Hampshire beginning on Friday.
While Paul was gearing up for a potentially make-or-break scenario at the debates on Saturday, Santorum, Gingrich, Perry, and Romney were already crowding Huntsman on the campaign beat. Santorum failed to dazzle (the highlight being when some amateur reporters asked him if he'd ever googled himself), Gingrich held a steady sideshow status, and Perry was very unremarkable. Romney continued to make the hollow, empty speeches that corporate puppets with establishment backing are known for. He also made a few errors. In a rather innocent statement aimed at Conservative small business owners, Romney praised the right to "fire" anyone he pleases. As the vast majority of American voters are coming to the harsh realization that they don't own much of anything at all, such a comment when reduced to a sound bite may prove hazardous to Romney's "better than" status among the slight majority of Republican voters.
As our heroes took the stage for the debates on Saturday night, to be followed by a debate on Sunday morning, many were curious as to who would win the New Orleans - Detroit NFC Wild Card game. Unfortunately the only people who really watch these debates are political junkies like myself, and we rarely watch a debate without having already selected a favorite. We then proceed to cheer for our candidate as if he were a football team, while hating the other debaters and booing the moderators as if they were intentionally spotting the ball well short of the first down marker. I can only hope, for America's sake, that the people of New Hampshire not only viewed these debates, but viewed them with an open mind and an honest desire to choose the best candidate for America.
Mitt Romney was obviously touted as the "winner" by establishment media hacks following both debates. This follows a pattern we have seen throughout these debates and is hardly a surprise anymore. The reality this time is merely that Romney wasn't a "loser". While attacked by Gingrich as promised, he merely seemed to shrug off Gingrich's assaults leaving the debauched former Speaker of the House obviously frustrated. Santorum and Huntsman also tried to assault Romney, but Romney's hollow words quickly diffused much of their energy. In the meantime, Rick Perry took the opportunity to add his own highlight to the debate. Beaming like a three year old boy who had just successfully used a toilet for the first time, he properly recited the three Departments of Government which would be eliminated by the Rick Perry administration. (After the debates, Perry, Santorum, and Gingrich immediately departed for South Carolina, forsaking the granite bedrock of Yankee politics for the more welcoming Baptist bedroom communities of the old Confederacy).
As stated earlier, the politician hidden inside Ron Paul began to reveal itself this week. After the Ron Paul circus hit New Hampshire Friday like a Texas gully washer, he went on to have a most memorable appearance in the Saturday Night debates. When presented with his "Chicken Hawk" quote in regards to Gingrich, he used the opportunity to go right for Newt's throat. He again slammed the war hawk policy of his competitors, while clearly and tactfully outlining his policy of moderation and strength through trade and diplomacy. He also, naturally, pointed out that Newt was a "draft dodger". After successfully putting Santorum on the defense at the start of the debate, he now had Newt flustered as well. As the enthralled audience looked on, Newt tried to explain that he had a child and was not eligible for service. With the natural timing and calculated bravado possessed only by the finest Roman Gladiators, Paul replied "I had two children. When I was called I went." Drowned out by the most deafening applause of the debate, Newt meekly stated "I wasn't eligible, I wasn't eligible....." Realizing that he had just been outmaneuvered by a craftier old campaigner than even the former Speaker himself, it wasn't hard to imagine Newt, for the first time in this campaign, choking back real tears.
At the end of the Saturday night debates, the candidates were asked what they would be doing if they were not campaigning. Santorum, trying to appeal to the average American, said that he would be watching the championship basketball game. Reminded that he meant football, he said "I mean football". Romney also said he would be watching the championship football game. This is a perfect example of how out of touch these guys are, and how they will say anything to try to appeal to their listeners. The BCS Championship game which Romney referred to wasn't until Monday night. Romney had no idea when it was, what it was, or who was playing. Santorum, depending on how the next three weeks plays out, will probably be home to watch the National Championship basketball game.
Ron Paul's answer was decidedly different, and exactly what you wanted to hear from a President. He said he would get everyone to bed and probably sit up and read an economic textbook. He was probably telling the truth. Contemplating the return to $3.50 gas and $5 pork chops, I can only hope Barack Obama is managing to squeeze in a few Economics textbooks between his midnight czar appointments and Halloween celebrity soirees.
After the debates were over, Ron Paul was acknowledged by more in the mainstream media as the "alternative" to Mitt Romney. As Santorum, Gingrich, and Perry vacated while the getting was good, Paul and Huntsman seem to be left standing alone against Romney as the Nation's first primary gets underway. The polls seem to have Paul firmly in second place, but the large amount of undecided voters will definitely twist the outcome in an unpredictable fashion as was the case in Iowa. If Huntsman defeats Paul, it will be a major blow to the Paul campaign, and will probably help propel Romney to an early finish line. If Huntsman defeats Romney, it will open up the gates a little for everybody, and probably give us an extended version of this immensely entertaining political spectacle. A close second place or unlikely first place finish by Paul will probably tag Paul as the front runner against Romney, signalling a short campaign for all the others - particularly Perry and Huntsman.
On Monday before the primaries, not-exactly-new-but-potentially-devastating revelations about Mitt's role in the Bain investment group began to hit the press. This may not affect the New Hampshire race, but may play a key role in South Carolina, and even into Florida. For now, Mitt is the heavy favorite, with the machine, the money, and the full support of the Establishment. He will happily control the dialogue of the campaign right up to the moment when he takes a November fall to Obama. Paul is the quintessential underdog. The grass roots, pay-as-you-go populist who, only in America, still has a chance to upset a big-money champion. Does America truly love the underdog, or is America more comfortable under establishment control? Do we really want to see Boise State or Hawaii bust the BCS, or are we more comfortable watching Alabama and Texas play for the prize? We will see.
A vote for Ron Paul is a bit like getting in your grandfather's '64 Chrysler for an after church drive in the country. While lounging in the cavernous dull pastels of the back seat, you sit back and contemplate the beautiful American scenery while Eisenhower's great feat of modern engineering rolls by underneath the tires. Hands at ten and two on the wheel, Guy Lombardo and his Royal Canadians softly crackling from the AM dashboard speaker, and seat belt fully locked in place, Grandpa heads steadily towards his destination at approximately three miles under the speed limit. With the old V8 purring along (begging for a little gasoline and a chance to leave a black mark on the fresh pavement) you can almost see a faint gleam rising from behind a distant hilltop on the western edge of a landscape shadowed by dark clouds and the crumbling remains of an antiquated superpower. This gleam is the ever elusive American Dream. It may not be exciting, it may not be fun, in fact it may be the most downright boring trip you've ever been on, but you know you can count on Grandpa to get you there in one piece - if anyone can.
A vote for Mitt Romney is a different story. A vote for Mitt Romney is like piling in the back of an Escalade with a bunch of well dressed men you don't really know under the pretense of attending some glamorous back-to-the-Eighties New Year's Eve gala. While the company may seem distinguished and the party may sound like the best way to spend the evening, you cannot shake the feeling that at any point you might receive a .38 to the temple and be left in a drainage ditch on the outskirts of town.
To Be Continued.................
vote for them all they know they are all swine who want power but they know what or how to handle it
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